Geopolitical Developments; The escalation of tensions between the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine increases the likelihood that the war will be regional day by day. Geopolitical risks are supportive factors for the demand for precious metals. In addition, we continue to observe a period of increased demand for precious metals amid the political uncertainty of the United States ahead of the US presidential elections on November 5.
Macroeconomic data;
On the second trading day of the week; We met the Core Retail Sales data from the Americas. While the expectations were -0.2%, the data was followed as 0.1%, which is the region of the American economy that is described as far from recession.
On the third trading day of the week, we started the day with the inflation figures of 2.2% and 2.2%, respectively, announced from the Eurozone and the UK. The most important data of the week, the Federal Reserve Bank, started its policy easing cycle by 0.50 basis points higher than expected after four and a half years, lowering borrowing rates to a range of 4.75%-5.00%. After the interest rate cut decision, the US Dollar lost strength compared to other macro currencies, while the funds coming out of the bond markets largely preferred precious metals. In precious metals, all-time record pricing was observed, especially in ounce gold. The ounce of gold, which started Wednesday around $2570, managed to attract all the attention with a record pricing of $2620 at the close of the week!
On the fourth trading day of the week, interest rate decisions from the UK and Turkey were announced. The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting and interest rates remained unchanged at 5.00%. On the CBRT side, while interest rates remained constant at 50.00%, the message was given in the text of the decision that monetary policy tools should be used when there is an upward momentum in inflation for the upcoming period. On the other hand , the U.S. Department of Labor announced on Thursday that the number of newly applied for unemployment insurance benefits reached 219,000, a figure below the market consensus of 230,000.
Weekly summary; In particular, the initiation of the FED's interest rate cut process and the possibility of increasing geopolitical tension in the coming period make it easier for precious metals to find buyers in global markets. In addition, the fact that the American economy is far from the possibility of recession, at least for now, we continue to observe positive movements for the silver commodity used in the industry. In particular, silver is directly affected by the possibility of a global recession, while this is not the case with ounce. The weakening of the probability of recession may cause silver prices to find buyers faster than gold prices.
While ounce gold broke a record, the premium difference in the free market increased slightly!
In addition, on the last trading day of the week; Premiums between the free market and global markets were around +$50 per ounce, and it was observed that the demand for gold in Turkey increased again.
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