Weekly Opening Oct 14-18, 2024

When starting a new week, volatility in the market continues to climb. Last week we observed some profit sales in precious metals. The reason for the snow sales was that hezbollah wanted a ceasefire agreement in the Middle East, especially with the US inflation figures announced above expectations. However, with the increasing geopolitical risks, the demand for precious metals, which are safe ports, is increasing again.
On the other hand, we can enter the period when the Chinese economy can again increase demand, especially for silver. Last Saturday, China was again expected to receive an incentive package worth 2 trillion yuan. But the market has not yet got what it expected. But the recurrence of incentive packages in the medium term is within expectations.

As of this week, especially Thursday and Friday will be the most active days of the market. An interest rate cut of 0.25bp is expected from the Eurozone on Thursday. An interest rate decision will be announced from the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, no change in interest rates is expected, but if a hint is given about interest rate discount expectations for the upcoming process, we can observe a rapid price movement in TL assets. On the other hand, the number of applications for Unemployment Rights from America will be announced on Thursday. Especially in the employment market, there will be a data that we will closely follow the possibility of deterioration. As disruption in employment in the United States will support interest cuts, we can expect positive weather to continue in precious metals if Unemployment Rights Application data increases. Finally, on the last trading day of the week, the eyes will be on the growth data from China! The chinese economy 3.If quarter growth figures are announced above expectations, we can observe a rapid increase in demand, especially on the silver side.
Technical summary; as the week began, ounce of gold began from the $2656 region, while ounce of silver began around $32.20 weeks. On the other hand, precious metals will continue to be in the Middle East and in the moves of the FED. In particular, if the likelihood of the war being regional increases, we can observe the increase in demand for precious metals that are considered as safe ports. In addition, demand increase from Turkey under ounce continues to be observed. The increase in domestic demand, especially due to the ithat quota, continues to lead to price differences. At the beginning of the week, the difference between the global markets on an ounce basis and the Turkish market started around $115. Especially in the Middle East, we can expect the current deficit to increase even more because the possibility of war will increase energy costs, in which case we can expect the quota to continue if we consider that the quota is caused by the current deficit.

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