The markets started February with high volatility! Especially in a period where politics are influencing the economy, pricing accelerated due to the Trump effect. Market attention was focused on the tariffs Trump would impose. Over the weekend, Trump announced a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico and a 10% tariff on China. After Trump’s decision, markets opened on Monday with sharp sell-offs, especially in global stock exchanges. In the US, the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones began the week with a loss of around 2%. The situation was similar in Europe; the German Industrial Index (DAX) opened the week with a 2% loss and a gap-down opening. The growing expectations that Trump would increase tariffs, which were seen as a signal of an economic slowdown, led investors to seek safe havens.
Gold, regarded as a safe haven, started the week above the $2800 resistance level. The uncertainty about how far Trump’s tariffs would go, particularly in the US, increased demand for gold. In Comex futures contracts, the price difference between spot gold and future contracts reached $2000 for 1 kg of gold. The main reason for this cycle was the fear that Trump would include precious metals in the tariffs. Additionally, gold shipments have begun in the US. Gold from outside the US, including from the UK and JP Morgan, seems to be heading back to the US due to Trump’s tariff concerns.
We have entered a period where demand for safe havens is increasing due to Trump’s unpredictable actions. Gold started 2025 at $2625 and gained 6% by the beginning of February. On the silver side, its performance has been more positive compared to gold. Silver, which started 2025 at $28.90, quickly reached $31.70 at the beginning of February, a 10% premium. On the macroeconomic front, the markets are pricing in two interest rate cuts from the Fed, while the Dollar Index remains strong due to Trump.
Inflation figures were also released domestically. Inflation expectations were at 41.25%, but it was announced as 42.12%. However, there was a slight decrease compared to the previous month. This decline in inflation caused a slight positive movement in the exchange rates, with the Dollar/TL approaching the 36.00 level in the Grand Bazaar. The rise of the Dollar against the Turkish Lira and the global increases in spot gold and silver prices are also positively affecting domestic gold and silver prices.
As long as gold remains above the $2700 level, we expect it to test the $3100 region. In silver, especially with a breakout above the $33.00 level, the long-awaited upward movement may occur this year.
This week, all eyes will be on Trump’s decisions and the critical data to be released from the US. The most important agenda items will be the Non-Farm Payroll and Unemployment figures, which directly impact the labor market. These will help us understand the Fed’s future interest rate policy. A weakness in the labor market may increase the likelihood of Fed rate cuts. In such a case, we may see signs of weakness in the Dollar Index and record-breaking prices in precious metals.
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