Weekly Outlook (June 30-July 04, 2025)
Starting the New Week
We continue to observe volatile price movements in global markets. Last week, especially with the decrease in geopolitical risk between Iran and the US and the tariff uncertainty process between the US and China reaching a clearer picture, risk appetite in global markets increased slightly, while selling pressure continues in precious metals.
Macroeconomic Outlook
Especially with the announcement of -0.5% US GDP (Gross Domestic Product) announced last week, the FED continues to support interest rate cut possibilities. Trump's desired policy of increasing production and supporting exports will be critical for growth figures not to be negative! For this reason, we are faced with a picture that Trump's demand for a transition to a low interest rate policy will be renewed in the coming period and expectations of interest rate cuts by the FED will strengthen. In this case, yes, we continue to expect a downward movement in precious metals in the coming period, but this downward movement will not be long-term.
This week, important data from the US will continue to be the focus of the markets. On Tuesday, JOLTS and PMI figures from the US, on Wednesday ADP and on Thursday; Average Hourly Earnings, Unemployment Rate, Non-Farm Employment figures will be the main focus of the markets!
On the other hand, the FED-Policy conflict continues to increase. According to Trump's strategy, we observe that a conflict process with Fed Chair Powell is escalating due to the need for a low interest rate policy to increase exports. This situation strengthens the possibility of FED Chair Powell's resignation, while in the end, it becomes a great uncertainty process that supports positive movement in precious metals.
Uncertainty Process
Canada announced that it has postponed the digital services tax targeting US technology companies, which was expected to go into effect today. Following this step, Trump's tariff comment on Canada will be a critical uncertainty.
On the other hand, the fact that the US public debt rose from around $5.7 trillion in 2000 to $36.1 trillion as of the second quarter of 2025 can be evaluated as a signal that the demand for gold will continue in the coming period. Because gold is used as a hedge insurance protection against US debt.
Technical Analysis
The ounce of gold, which started 2025 at $2,625, continues to be priced in the 3,285 region near the end of the second quarter. Technically, pricing below $3,315 may continue to support the short-term negative outlook.
Local Market Outlook
Domestically, the gram gold price in the Grand Bazaar closed last week at 4,215 TL. In the new week, prices are observed around 4,170 TL with a slightly seller trend. Following the inflation report expected to be announced on Thursday, the expectation of the TCMB to cut interest rates in June, the USD/TRY exchange rate exceeding 39.80, continues to positively affect gram gold prices on a global scale.
In Turkey, premiums on an ounce basis are priced at a premium of +$5 more than abroad in the Grand Bazaar. On a kilogram basis, there is a difference of approximately $150 compared to the London market. All eyes will be on US employment data this week!
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 0.25 basis points in July is priced at 21%.
Warning: The information, comments and recommendations contained herein are not within the scope of investment consultancy. Investment consultancy services are provided individually, taking into account the risk and return preferences of individuals. The content, comments and recommendations contained herein, which are in no way guiding, are of a general nature. These recommendations may not be suitable for your financial situation and risk and return preferences. For this reason, making investment decisions based solely on the information contained herein may not produce results that meet your expectations.
