Starting the New Week We continue to witness volatile price movements in global markets. Precious metals are off to a strong start in June, with both the U.S. 10-year Treasury yields and safe-haven demand increasing—an uncommon combination. Uncertainty continues to dominate the agenda, further fueling demand for precious metals. This week, markets will focus on the Russia-Ukraine peace talks, a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and crucial U.S. employment data.
Tariff Policy U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans to raise tariffs on steel imports from 25% to 50%. Last week, the International Trade Court blocked the tariff package, citing overreach, but the Appellate Court temporarily allowed enforcement to continue.
Macroeconomic Outlook The recent U.S. Core PCE index came in at 2.5%, moving closer to the Fed’s year-end target of 2.1%. This raises the probability of rate cuts in the second half of the year. Key U.S. data releases this week include:
- Monday: PMI data & Powell’s speech
- Tuesday: JOLTS
- Wednesday: ADP, Services PMI, ISM PMI
- Thursday: Weekly jobless claims
- Friday: Non-Farm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate
Tensions between Trump’s export-driven low-rate agenda and Powell’s Fed persist, increasing speculation around Powell’s resignation—another factor boosting precious metal prices.
Geopolitical Outlook Geopolitical tensions are escalating. Peace talks between Russia and Ukraine are scheduled today at 1:00 PM in Istanbul’s Çırağan Palace. Over the weekend, Ukraine reportedly destroyed over 40 Russian aircraft using drones; in retaliation, Russia launched a large-scale overnight strike. Markets are currently pricing in the possibility of failed negotiations.
Technical Analysis Gold opened 2025 at $2,625 and ended Q1 at a record $3,125. Technical indicators suggest continued upside above $3,230. After a healthy correction to $3,285 last week, holding above $3,350 could trigger a move toward $3,400.
Local Market Outlook In Turkey, gram gold closed last week at TRY 4,150 and is trading around TRY 4,240. The combination of expected CBRT rate cuts and USD/TRY breaking above 39.00 continues to support local gold prices. Premiums on ounce-based pricing have fallen to $10, while kilogram premiums over London are around $320. Key focus remains on U.S. jobs data, tariff headlines, and geopolitical developments.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 bps rate cut in July stands at 24%.
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